R.BRENDAN
LEARY
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phone 650 207 2100
email bleary@cbnorcal.com
web www.brendanleary.com
Top 1% of Coldwell Banker Internationally
#1 Agent in CB Palo Alto Offices 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007
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NOVEMBER 2008 NEWSLETTER |
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ver the last few months everyone is paying attention to politics, economics, the
stock market, retirement accounts, company earnings, rescue plans ... 'bail-out'. It is
unfortunate that this awareness has come with such a significant price.
The REAL ESTATE market has settled in. Think 25% and 25%: the volume of business is off at
least 25% and it is fair to say values are off 25%. Hard to believe but true. The Mid-Peninsula
market is still surviving compared to surrounding areas that have been hit much harder. Having
said that, marginal cost equals marginal revenue. Remember: location, condition and PRICE.
Now that price has started moving in a direction where real people can afford homes, sales
are happening. The affordability factor is simply price meeting ability to pay.
I thought it might be helpful to outline 2 transactions that are examples of the current market.
The first one demonstrates that if you want in, now is about as good as it gets. |
HOW IS THE MARKET?
This is the question I am asked multiple times a day. WHICH MARKET? |
Transaction One
Our first time buyer will be named Jane. Single, good income
and good savings. We sat down with her and determined she
could afford up to $700,000 with 20% down. We then factored in
the tax effects of the mortgage interest deduction and property
taxes. The real additional expense compared to renting was under
$1,000. We found a condominium in Campbell, new construction
listed at $699,000. After using the lost art of negotiation, the final
sales price was $620,000. The seller credited $18,000 to Jane.
We used these funds to buy her interest rate down to 5.375%.
The seller paid for the first year of homeowners dues. Wait, not
done, additional perks added were a new flat screen TV and all
new blinds. I hope you get the picture. A good, good time to be
shopping in the entry-level market.
Now the banking was almost nightmarish. The in-house broker
said Jane was approved. We removed our finance contingency,
placing our deposit at risk if we did not perform. The loan actually
reached the point of docs being drawn and Wells hanged their
mind. Thank goodness for a college friend who is an executive at
Wells Fargo. A few difficult moments, situations that I have not
seen since 1980. I hate to say it, but it is fun for me. I enjoy being
in the trenches and playing chess with just about everyone.
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Transaction Two
To set the scene: we have a listing at 3 million dollars. Buyer
Joe brings us an offer and, lo and behold, we get an offer from
another buyer. Two offers in this environment. Do not hold your
breath any longer. Needless to say, we got our price.
Joe had no contingencies. We did check on how he was paying for
it. One million dollars down, $2 million loan from his "relationship"
bank. He was liquidating stock and had sold his home in Half
Moon Bay for $1.35 million. In one swoop, his stock takes a dive
and the bank "changes its mind" and will only lend $1.4 million.
So we give him an extension and his deposit is released to our
seller in hopes of his stock doing a little recovery. This does not
happen, yet Joe and his wife love the home and decide to go
forward with the purchase.
The Storm intensifies. Joe's buyer in Half Moon Bay decides he
has paid too much and is willing to walk away from a 3% deposit.
This would kill everything.
Fast forward to the end result. The price of Joe's home in HMB
was reduced by $100,000, keeping his buyer. Our clients accepted
a sales price reduction of $50,000 and will carry a small loan at
7%. This allows Joe to postpone selling a portion of his stock.
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Our clients receive $2.4 million in cash from Joe and a nice return
on the balance. Win, win. I have not had to come up with ideas
like this since 1980. Difficult, yet a fun challenge.
At the beginning of this year, I made a decision to reduce my
workload. Although it has been fun, it has been a bit boring at
times. So, on November 22nd I will have my PET scan 1 year posttreatment.
Assuming it is clear (Happy Thanksgiving), playtime
is over. It may sound funny, but I am excited about the difficult
market. Many of the old challenges and their long-lost solutions
are resurfacing.
I know everyone is feeling deep concern for where all of this
upheaval is going.
I am right on top of the list. I never thought I would be checking
on the "up and down" club 2 or 3 times a day. But in all situations
there is always an "up" side. Finding the "up" side is the challenge
for all of us.
We will have a personal Christmas update out in a month.
My best to all of you,
RBL
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ith such a drastic change in our economy over just
the last few months, purchasing a home may seem
daunting to some, but there is a silver lining in it all.
Having grown up in the Bay Area, I have watched housing prices
rise at a substantial rate throughout my entire life. For many of
my "thirty-something" friends, home ownership was out of reach
unless they sed some "creative financing" by receiving assistance
with down ayments from their parents, using both incomes in
their household and putting every penny they have into their
home. Although those options help, they also bring about new
expenses. For example, with both parents working outside the
home to make ends meet, there are additional financial expenses
such as day care, gas, etc. These additional xpenses were just too
daunting for them to even think about purchasing a home.
With the economic downturn, there is a "break in the clouds"
in terms of housing prices, and perhaps some relief for those
who wish to become homeowners. I've seen my friends in this
area struggle with the decision to stay in the Bay Area or move
out of town to "someplace more affordable". With inventory
rising, and prices decreasing, there is now the opportunity for
them to get in the game and stay in the area. Buyers are taking
more liberties with list prices, realizing they have more power
in the marketplace then they've ever had before, and are getting
the home they want at the price that is more affordable. Going
back to Brendan's example of first-time homebuyer Jane, she had
actually been in the market for a home for over a year and a
half. She was willing to wait for the right time, and jumped at the
chance when the market went south. She is now happily living
in her new condo, which she hopes will be a sound investment
for the future.
Cheers,
Jaime |
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e came through a period of "Irrational Exuberance" thinking that home prices
would never come down, now we find ourselves in a time of "Irrational Hope" for
sellers and one of "Irrational Fear" for buyers. Sellers are hoping to realize a price
of yesteryear and buyers are frozen in place as they fear prices may drop even further. The
market is very tough, but I think we all know that. It is what it is and we have to work with it.
That is the point of the two stories. In the end a major price correction will have happened,
which brings with it opportunities.
This information is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed
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