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From: Goldman, Avram To: Brendan Leary Sent: Sunday, July 11, 2004 1:33 PM Subject: Weekly Market Activity Report (June 28 - July 4, 2004) Importance: High The media keeps saying its over, but the buyers say not yet. Yes, it is not March, but for the typically slower summer it is better than expected. Is your cup half full or half empty. In this case it is about 85% full. Inventories are increasing but not dramatically. In most markets they either remain steady and in a few decreasing. The listing numbers this past week were 20 Steady, 8 Increasing and can you believe 3 decreasing office inventory. Santa Clara county listing inventory is at 2950 active listings. A balanced market is 3850. This number is still below last year and way below 2002. At the current rate of increase it would take 6-7 weeks to reach the balance point. In the East Bay inventories remain low. In Dublin and Livermore about 2 weeks and Danville is now back just under a month. Multiple offers are still the order of the day in the first time buyer market and a good part of the SF Peninsula. 50-80% of the offers on the mid-Peninsula are multiples. Most in the 2-4 category. Berkeley and Oakland-Piedmont continue to experience 70-80% of their offers having multiples. We are seeing a little slowing in Marin. As I said before, the first time buyer market is still a little crazed. In the Berkeley Hills a fixer listed at $500,000 had 24 offers. The good news is we were the successful offer. Another property in the oh so hot Sunset district of SF saw a listing at $698,000 with 27 offers. As long as interest rates remain hovering around 6% the demand will continue. Markets can change quickly. We still need to listen for the signs. It is still a market that if houses are priced a little below market they should yield multiple offers. As noted among some offices those sellers trying to test the limit of the markets will get burned. If July continues at near June's pace we should have a strong summer. Barring any global incidences the boat should sail smoothly into the fall and early winter. Have a sensational week. Avram Goldman Coldwell Banker San Francisco Bay Area President and COO |
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July/August 2004 | ||
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There were 1,685 homes sold,an increase of 41%, year-ov-eryear, and 11.7% compared to the month before. There were 701 condos sold, an increase of 44%, year-overyear, and 10% compared to May. Inventory decreased in June,dropping 27% compared to last year and 7% from the month before. The only thing keeping prices from exploding again is the record setting number of new listings coming to market for the past four months. As it is, prices continue to rise but rather than the 20%-30% gains of 2000, we are "only " seeing 10% to 15% monthly gains. The median home price set a new record in June at $642,000, a gain of 13.6%, year-over-year. The average price rose 15.8% to $783,343. The record average home price is $810,000 set in April 2000. The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the fourth month in a row at 100.5%. The good news is it dropped 0.9 points from the month before. The chart below shows the Days of Inventory: how many days it would take to sell all the homes for sale at the current rate of sales. |
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